Category Archives: Geopolitics

The Pentagon Pulls the Plug on Anthropic

War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael — The All In Podcast

Emil Michael came into his role as Under Secretary of War last August and did what any good lawyer would do right away. He read the contracts! But what he found surprised him. And that led to a major dispute between Anthropic and the United States government that blew up in the media last weekend.

Part of the backstory is how Anthropic, one of the top AI companies in the world, got so embedded in the government in the first place. The Biden administration’s executive order on AI effectively limited compute capacity for most companies while grandfathering in a small number of selected winners. Anthropic was one of them. From there, the company executed a smart enterprise sales strategy and moved their software and engineers into the most sensitive parts of the government. This is a common strategy for tech firms selling into the largest customer on Earth.

So, by the time Michael arrived, Anthropic wasn’t just a vendor. It was woven into the daily workflows of some of the country’s most critical military commands including Central Command, the Indo-Pacific Command, and several intelligence departments. That history matters now because, as Michael acknowledged, untangling a deeply embedded technology partner is far harder than simply switching vendors. The other AI companies haven’t built out that kind of government infrastructure yet. They’re capable on the model side, but they have to catch up on everything else, which they certainly will do in short order.

But buried in Anthropic’s terms of service were restrictions that, from Michael’s perspective, made the software nearly unusable for its intended purpose — to plan, fight, and win wars.

“You can’t use them to plan a kinetic strike. You can’t use their AI model to move a satellite. You can’t do a war game scenario with it,” Michael explained on the All In Podcast. The Department of War, as he noted repeatedly, is pretty clearly stated right in the name. War.

What followed was three months of laborious negotiations arguing over scenario after scenario involving various military operations. Anthropic would grant an exception here and another one there. But Michael needed something broader. The military cannot predict every situation it will face in real time and into the future, and an AI model that requires pre-approved use cases is not a reliable operational tool. In fact, it would compromise national security and potentially endanger troops in the field. Instead, he pushed for a single standard — all lawful use — that he could apply to all AI vendors.

Then came the moment that accelerated the conflict. After the Venezuela mission, an Anthropic executive contacted Palantir, the prime contractor implementing Anthropic’s technology, and asked whether their software had been used in the raid. Since that information is classified, Palantir informed Michael. The implication was clear. If the answer were yes then Anthropic might consider that a terms of service violation and pull their software.

“What if the balloon’s going up at that moment and it’s like a decisive action we have to take,” Michael said. “I’m not going to call you to do something. It’s like not rational.” That phone call reference wasn’t a hypothetical situation. Michale said that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei actually told him durning negotiations to just call him when issues came up. From Michael’s perspective, though, that’s obviously not a reasonable solution under the circumstances, especially involving combat and national security.

That conversation grew to a breaking point. Michael went to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, who demanded that Anthropic lift the restrictions. The company refused. So, Anthropic was formally designated a supply chain risk, the first American company ever to receive that designation from the government. Generally, that’s reserved for enemies. As a result, the $200 million contract was cancelled. Now it’s Michael’s job to unwind Anthropic from their positions throughout the government.

The broader issue here goes well beyond the Pentagon. As Chamath Palihapitiya argued on the podcast, what Anthropic demonstrated is that any sufficiently powerful AI provider can, at any moment, change its terms of service based on the internal values of its employees, which seems to be an issue for this company. That is a significant business risk for governments, corporations, and anyone else who has built critical workflows on top of a single AI model. “It’s deplatforming times a thousand,” he said.

The situation is still fresh. But for now, the ball is in Dario Amodei’s court. Michael said plainly what he has always wanted, which is a reliable partner willing to support lawful use without requiring a phone call every time something comes up. That’s not an unreasonable ask. And it’s the same standard that Google, Grok, and OpenAI have all moved toward without any drama. Anthropic chose a different path. And in doing so, the company may have handed its competitors a significant opening inside massive government accounts it spent years cultivating.

Anthropic’s revenue and valuation have both been growing rapidly. But will that trend continue? It’s well known that AI engineers and advanced researchers will only stay where the work is interesting and the money is flowing freely. Future contracts will go where the terms make sense for the government. How Amodei responds now, and how quickly, will reveal whether Anthropic is a principled company or simply a difficult one with a political agenda.

AI Meets the Department of War

Ben Thompson’s article at Stratechery starts with a power politics view of international law. It doesn’t really exist, he says, because no one can enforce it. Might makes right. The U.S. bombed Iran and that settled the debate. That’s how power works in the world. Always has.

From there, Thompson pivots to Anthropic, which recently refused demands from the Department of War to lift restrictions in the model’s terms of use. Dario Amodei, CEO at Anthropic, said the company would not support mass domestic surveillance or fully autonomous weapons. The DOD responded by threatening to designate Anthropic a supply chain risk, which is a label reserved for foreign adversaries.

Thompson’s analysis here is blunt. Amodei has publicly compared advanced AI chips to nuclear weapons. So Thompson takes him at his word and extends the logic to its natural conclusion. If AI is truly that powerful, which remains to be seen at present, then a private company that controls it and seeks independence from the military will run directly into the U.S. government. In other words, this isn’t just a vendor dispute. It’s a national security issue. Anthropic doesn’t take that view, obviously. The problem is that the U.S. government has the guns.

The conclusion Thompson comes to is binary. Either Anthropic accepts a subordinate role to elected government authorities, or the U.S. government will eventually destroy or remove it, which they’ve done before throughout history. Thompson isn’t supporting that outcome, of course. But although he seems to lean to Anthropic’s side of the debate on domestic surveillance his analysis is comprehensive and more than fair. He also argues that Anthropic’s insistence on controlling military decisions is itself fundamentally misaligned with how power operates in the world. He reminds us of this reality right up top in his piece with a quote from Pericles: “Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn’t mean politics won’t take an interest in you.” He’s correct with that bit.

Here’s Ben Thompson’s original article on Anthropic:
Anthropic and Alignment

Here’s Ben Thompson on the A16z Podcast talking about his article:
Ben Thompson: Anthropic, the Pentagon, and the Limits of Private Power

Here’s much more on the issue from the All In Podcast but from the perspective of the Department of War, which is substantially different:
Pentagon vs Anthropic: Why Anthropic was labeled a supply-chain risk

The Sheriff of Baghdad

The Shawn Ryan Show: John “Shrek” McPhee – The Sheriff of Baghdad | SRS #133

Loved this podcast with McPhee. I have so much to learn from this guy’s experiences. I don’t care that some of the stories sound exaggerated, which they obviously are just based on common sense and also some accounts from similar operators who tell their stories online. However, there’s more than enough in that mix of madness to learn some interesting perspectives for overcoming challenges in daily life. I learn from everyone. I don’t care who they are. Anyway, here’s a little Shrek review below.

John “Shrek” McPhee’s trek from South Chicago’s idilic and sleepy back streets to Delta Force’s most elite teams reveals a career built on tactical innovation, unconventional leadership, and brutally violent efficiency. Even now in retirement, Shrek is still the canonical Special Forces operator. This former Sergeant Major didn’t just survive decades of special operations in warfare. No way. He thrived in in. He loved those decades and regrets nothing. He actually revolutionized how teams approach combat, killing, mental health, and training. His story offers lessons that transcend military service and apply to anyone who faces extreme challenges in any field.

Early Life: Learning Self-Reliance

McPhee grew up in South Chicago near the steel mills that eventually shut down and devastated the local economy. Ah, yes, the benefits of so-called “free trade” implemented by our colonial globalists. His parents were young and drank heavily, so he didn’t have any solid family role models. His mother grew bitter after divorce and argued with everyone in her life — her sister, her parents, her children. By age 12, McPhee and his older brother recognized they were more mature than their parents so they left home. They survived through petty theft, stealing food to eat, and eventually they left home and lived in a brothel run by a family friend who took them in. That move itself would be too much for most kids to manage. But despite the chaos, McPhee attended school daily and walked miles through snow to ensure he got an education that might offer escape. He didn’t seem to complain about this time in his life, though. Instead, he just made the best of what he had. That’s lesson number one.

He started working at age eight, fixing semi-trucks for his stepdad — greasing rigs, adjusting brakes, changing tires, and just doing regular maintenance. By age ten he could service a semi-truck completely, which is quite a skill to acquire at such a young age. Kids just don’t learn anything practical in modern America, so he was lucky in that respect even though his general circumstances were horrible. He also pumped gas and became a welder and rebuilt gravel truck frames and beds that had flipped over. He made such good money as a welder that joining the Army at 21 meant taking a pay cut. He didn’t even find the Army difficult initially, so he was obviously one tough kid. And he wouldn’t make more than his civilian welding salary until he reached E-7 as a Sergeant First Class. But he loved the Army and saw the opportunity for combat. That’s really what he wanted.

Although high school generally sucks for many people (I certainly hated the entire experience), for him it meant daily violence. As the only white student at a disciplinary school for kids who had fought at other schools, he faced constant attacks on the bus. Kids would jump him every day. His survival strategy in fighting became foundational to his later tactical thinking — accept that you can’t win every fight, but make the attackers pay such a heavy price that tomorrow you’ll face fewer enemies. In other words, send a message. If two guys had to go to the hospital for a couple weeks, that’s great. That’s two less people tomorrow, ten or twelve fewer within weeks. Eventually, things got so bad that the school district paid for a private cab because police had to pull the bus over every morning for broken seats, broken windows, broken arms, and broken noses. It must have been a mess. Most kids don’t survive this experience well. But within that environment McPhee was developing the skills of the ultimate warrior.

This childhood taught McPhee something critical — control. Some kids who have been abused at school learn to control adrenaline better than most because they also know they’re getting beaten when mom or dad comes home drunk later that night. It’s always about control. You need that because you are usually too small to win those battles. Being able to master the skill of control would save his life later at Taliban checkpoints when he went out on missions alone and had to improvise to save his life.

Military Foundation: Rangers to Delta

McPhee joined the Army at 21. Everyone in his family had served, so it felt inevitable. After basic training and Airborne school (which he considered an easy joke), Ranger Indoctrination Program (RIP) transformed everything. RIP’s brutality and professionalism showed him what the military could be and where he wanted to be. The cadre showed up at his Airborne graduation, ripped the beret off his head, and he never saw it again. They loaded duffel bags on a truck and drove off. If it wasn’t for stop signs and traffic, the students would have lost them. They had to run across post chasing everything the Army had given them. Sounds like an exciting graduation.

RIP was where McPhee realized the Army might be a joke but the guys on that team weren’t playing around. He loved every minute. People did what they said they’d do. He finally fit in somewhere. And it was extreme. During his 1991 Iraq combat jump, 30-knot winds scattered the Rangers all over the place. As he landed, McPhee’s backpack caught on rebar in a bombed out building, which caused a compound fracture in his lower leg. With his bone sticking out, he dumped water on it, pushed the bone back in, pinched the skin closed, and did a double pressure dressing. It probably hurt like hell but that didn’t seem to matter at the time. Then he walked through the minefield outside the airfield, jumped the fence, and linked up with his team. When the medic finally looked at McPhee’s leg, he asked who did the dressings. McPhee said he did. The medic gave him more supplies and told him to put the bandages back on.

The injury plagued him because his squad leader wouldn’t let him seek further medical attention, saying “Quit being a bitch!” Sounds like the incompetent and dangerous coaches I had in high school. By the time McPhee got real treatment, it was too late to cast properly. He had to suck it up for months until it healed enough to run again. The Ranger doctor told him he might get medically discharged, which didn’t go over well with McPhee. He wasn’t there to get out just over this. He just wanted to know how to get back to running with less pain. That mindset (refuse to quit, adapt, and overcome) defined his life. That probably counts as lesson number two. There will be many more so there’s no need to keep track.

Five years in Rangers led to Special Forces, but Seventh Group disappointed him after the intensity of Ranger Battalion. Too slow, too conventional, barely any shooting. Then a Mogadishu veteran code-named Elvis sat next to him in the Q-course. At first McPhee thought, who is this random E-7 who’s not good at demolitions and not good at anything he was doing? It turned out that out Elvis was a Delta operator crossing over from 11B to 18-series to get promoted faster on the Special Forces track and then return to the unit. You take whatever path you can fine, I guess. You innovate. You move. Another lesson.

At 1 AM, Elvis handed McPhee a piece of paper with a location and told him to take the PT test at 6 AM. McPhee was already hammered and drinking and smoking cigars at Elvis’s house. He said “fuck no!” But curiosity got the best of him and he showed up anyway. What the hell, right? Elvis said that all he had to do was pass Army standard to get into the selection. McPhee passed even though he was hungover with no sleep. He even lapped his former Ranger team leaders on the run just to prove a point. He enjoyed that part especially.

Delta Selection: Autonomy and Excellence

Selection in Delta was the best experience of McPhee’s life. The premise of the team was simple — leave me alone, point me in the right direction, I’ll handle it. No encouragement, no discouragement. Just “be at the truck at 0800” written on a board. Figure out the rest yourself. Don’t be late, light, or out of uniform. Bring your shit, make sure it weighs right, let’s go. How’s that for a management scheme? I’d take it. Micromanagers need not apply. Good. They are a waste.

But McPhee realized that he was actually on the worst team in selection history with guys bitching up and not pulling their weight. During the log PT he said that instead of twelve people actually lifting, half the team quit mentally and made the log impossibly heavy for those who tried. Sounds familiar. That’s true on many teams I’ve worked on. But McPhee started yelling “zero” instead of counting off. A cadre threatened to kick him out if he yelled zero again. McPhee: “Roger that, Sergeant. 1-2-3-4 … ZERO!” He didn’t care. He had an unreal level of confidence in himself. The cadre pulled him out, gave him a six-foot log to carry alone as punishment. McPhee crushed it, yelling zero the entire time. “You’re welcome, you bitches.” Love it.

The final road march separated the professionals from the pretenders. Everyone sprinted off the start line like idiots. McPhee walked, knowing that you don’t start a 20-25 mile ruck with a sprint. Two miles in, a creek crossing stopped everyone. They were putting garbage bags over their boots to stay dry. McPhee just walked straight through and gained a massive lead. He finished first or second, turned in his star clusters to an empty box. He asked the cadre how many were done. “Just one other guy. Hit the showers.” Job well done.

Once he was in, Delta’s culture shocked him. When he passed selection and moved to the next room for gear fitting, they had ten kit bags perfectly sized with his name on everything. All he had to do was throw them on his shelves and start training. He’d never seen that level of preparation and professionalism. When he put on the GSG9 assault boots (which he’d only heard rumors about), he realized that the regular Army doesn’t do this. This is different.

And unlike Selection, the Operator Training Course (OTC) tested him, particularly the obstacle course. His first run was embarrassingly slow. His counselor said that “we’ve never failed anybody out of the unit for the O-course, but you could definitely be the first person.” But McPhee came in early, stayed after hours, and worked weekends with guys who were Olympic-level athletes. He studied technique obsessively. On the final O-course run (a rainy day when guys were busting their asses), McPhee came in second or third because his technique was so tight that the poor conditions didn’t matter. He simply decided to master whatever need to be learned to succeed.

The shooting standards were no joke too. McPhee sucked with a pistol initially but probably won the shooting program for most of OTC until one bad string dropped him ten points into third place. The competition was so tight he couldn’t recover. But the key insight he realized was that Delta wanted every person to succeed. No hazing, no games. This isn’t college. If you needed help, someone would show you. First-name basis. Professional instruction from the world’s best teachers to insure that you would be the world’s best. In any organization, that would indeed be unique. I’ve certainly never experienced that at any company I’ve worked for.

The Psychology and Reality of Killing

McPhee’s first kills came at Tora Bora in November 2001. He controlled every asset in the eastern hemisphere for ten days — every bomb, every pound of ordnance dropped by him and a couple other guys. The first day he said he killed so many people he stopped counting. Hundreds. Too many to track. Fun. He loved it. I can see why, too.

His philosophy on killing was clinical and uncompromising. He called it “State Department by Shrek.” He made the decisions, and he was the authority. Kill everyone. If you shoot at us, we level your entire position. Move up. You shoot at us again, we level that. Move up. Simple, efficient, effective. And fun! He never lost sight of having a blast while killing the enemy. There were also many 50-cal sniper shots at 2,500 meters, which is pretty far. So, McPhee is careful not to claim confirmed kills like these because “you can’t get there from here.” But the guys never shot again so make your own conclusions, he says. And besides, why count one here and there when you are already in the hundreds. No matter.

It’s critical to understand that McPhee loved killing in combat. Not in a psychopathic way, but because it was the purest expression of his skills and purpose. And since this is war and the situation is kill or be killed, there’s just no need to feel anything else but excitement. He describes himself as having had “a great time” under mortar fire at Tora Bora. A teammate later told him that “those were incoming rounds, but you had such a smile on your face I didn’t want to ruin it for you.” The local Afghan commander told McPhee’s boss, “Your men are very brave.” Others thought McPhee was insane for standing in the open during mortar attacks.

The difference between McPhee’s experience and stories like Lone Survivor puzzled him: “Bring 400 of your friends, tell them to bring their trucks and machine guns. We would just kill all comers. I don’t understand how those things happened compared to my experience. We killed so many people you can’t even count.”

His team had one simple advantage because they didn’t just kill everyone immediately. That’s how you fail. You pull threads, exploit intelligence, climb networks. Killing everyone is casualty production, not warfare. The goal is winning, and you can’t kill enough people to win a war. The Nazis tried that. It doesn’t work. Instead, you kill what you need to kill and move on. Don’t waste your time or energy.

Singleton Missions: Operating Alone

McPhee’s singleton missions demonstrated tactical genius he learned from necessity. After Tora Bora, intelligence indicated a man and his sons had escorted Bin Laden from the mountains into Pakistan. McPhee had to find him and he had to do it alone.

He left a safe house in Jalalabad in a cab, a coordinated asset that dropped him at a junction. From there he found targets of opportunity. He hitchhiked in jingly trucks, rode with locals, sat with goats and strangers in his lap on any vehicle he could find or steal. At checkpoints with AK-47s to his chest, he couldn’t speak English or he’d get killed immediately. So he screamed and acted completely insane, which wasn’t hard for him. He wasn’t acting. It came naturally. And it worked. Guards waved him through thinking he was crazy, which he certainly was.

The mission took seven to ten days with zero communication back to his team. He slept in trucks and taxis, strangers sitting on his lap, drivers shifting gears into his crotch. When they passed the target house, McPhee filmed it with a Super 8 camera hidden in a cigarette bag along with a satphone.

Later he stopped at a house at the end of the valley. Men gave him black tea and also opium tea that puts you to sleep for days. McPhee knew the difference (they drank clear tea), drank it anyway, then took speed when the lights went out to stay awake. In the middle of the night, he dragged the truck driver to the vehicle at gunpoint and drove out.

Why the urgency? Simple. It’s efficiency. He’d already achieved mission success. He got the video. Every additional second risked compromise, failure, or death. The goal wasn’t adventure. It was completing the objective and getting out alive. His ability to see things that clearly and precisely was a result of his training but also his early life of being abused. You do what you can with what you have in any given moment and get out to live another day.

When he returned to Jalalabad, he drew the assault plan on a napkin — stick figures, trucks, helicopters, house, exfil. A general later called him “Picasso,” but McPhee’s response was pure Chicago: “You didn’t send me with a proper reporting format. What did you expect?”

The real lesson McAfee learned from singleton missions was that operating alone increases the learning curve 100-to-1. You can only count on yourself, so you learn faster and deeper and more immediately than any practice session or team operation could teach. That experience changed how McPhee thought about everything. It’s also a lesson for anyone doing anything. Strip things down to their core, figure it out, do it, and get out.

Iraq: The Sheriff of Baghdad and Network Dismantling

Iraq operations ran 10-20 hits nightly at peak tempo. McPhee’s Squadron didn’t want guys sitting around getting drunk and breaking stuff, so they went out every night. The operational philosophy was simple. There’s always another target. Keep moving, keep hitting, keep exploiting intelligence.

McPhee systematically dismantled Saddam Hussein’s inner circle, and he discovered a critical pattern: everyone who physically touched Saddam (tailors, bath attendants, food handlers, barbers) was Christian. The logic was brutal but sound: Christian martyrs go to hell, Muslim martyrs go to heaven. Saddam surrounded himself with people who had zero incentive to kill him. Smart.

McPhee captured Saddam’s tailor and took his clothes. He still owns Saddam’s fox fur hat from the famous video where Saddam fires a Mauser in the air while captured on cameras. He wears an Italian sweater from Saddam’s wardrobe on Christmas Eve. It’s too small now, though. His beer belly hangs out the bottom. “I look like a fat man in a little coat.”

McPhee’s team captured Saddam’s favorite mistress’s husband using pure street theater. Intelligence reports said the mistress might know Saddam’s location. McPhee made the husband call out the tailor’s shop. He then positioned two trusted Iraqi Mohawk allies to start a fist fight in the street to prompt everyone to came outside to watch. The assault team grabbed the target from behind while he was distracted. McPhee’s boss asked afterward: “Who were the guys fighting?” McPhee: “Those were our guys.” Boss: “You should have told me.” McPhee: “Things happened fast.”

One of the deck of cards targets (Saddam’s inner circle) got snatched after McPhee held the family hostage. They took his sisters, grandma, mom, and told them to contact him. Three days later, the guy turned himself in at Mosul. Simple, effective, brutal.

The Northern Iraqi campaign later demonstrated McPhee’s strategic flexibility. They worked under B Squadron when Navy SEALs tried to put his SF team on boats for river assaults. This after McPhee’s team had worked their way up through the entire SEAL target deck to the number one guy. The Task Force Commander intervened: “Let me get this straight. You’re the premier SEALs in the world and you’re putting Special Forces guys on boats? These guys worked from the bottom of your target deck to make you successful.” McPhee got reassigned to B Squadron, then A Squadron. His team was with B Squadron when they killed Zarqawi. In the famous photo of who killed Zarqawi, McPhee’s team is the guys wearing DCUs (Desert Combat Uniforms) in the back.

The hide above bore for killing doesn’t matter. McPhee says it’s 2.5 inches. If you’re supposed to shoot center mass and hit 2.5 inches off, no one will ever know when you cut the shirt off. What matters is immediate action, adaptation, and moving to the next target. It’s close enough.

Strategic Insights: Why Wars Fail

McPhee offers brutal assessments of the wars he fought. On Afghanistan: “If you didn’t read the fine print when you went in, which said we were going to fuck this up on the way out, not shocked.” He knew it would end poorly his first day in combat. Everyone in the team room knew. They read the Russian book The Bear Went Over the Mountain and saw the same patterns. The only thing America did better than the Soviets was cleanliness. Disease killed the Russians, not Afghans.

On the Taliban and Bin Laden, McPhee mentions that Mullah Omar claimed years later that if given the full 48 hours Bush promised, he would have surrendered Bin Laden, but America invaded at hour 40. However, this specific claim about a 48-hour ultimatum and invasion at hour 40 appears to be either misremembered or lacks historical verification. What is documented is that pre-9/11 discussions occurred where the Taliban offered trials, and post-9/11 negotiations were weak and conditional. Bush’s September 20 speech demanded Taliban hand over Al-Qaeda leaders, and bombing began October 7, approximately 17 days later.

Iraq was worse strategically. Saddam should have been left in power and pumped full of resources to fight Iran. Removing him destabilized everything without strategic benefit. McPhee says: “I’d have pumped him full of all kinds of shit to fuck Iran up. However, we gave it all away. It’s a clusterfuck just like Afghanistan. But the reality is this is how it goes. Don’t get upset. It’s the fine print. Should have read it.”

The core insight: you can’t kill enough people to win wars. Not today, not ever. The Nazis tried total war and it failed. Preservation of life (yours and those who matter to the mission) is how you win. McPhee learned this through solo missions where being smart mattered more than simply being lethal.

Leadership Philosophy: Managing Elite Operators

McPhee’s approach to leadership emerged from hard experience. When Tim Kennedy joined his team fresh from the Q-course, Kennedy’s talent was obvious but his maturity wasn’t. He was probably the baddest guy in the Q-course, then arrived at a place where he automatically fell to the bottom. That’s hard for high-confidence people.

Kennedy complained about staying back when helicopters got shot down, talked about kicking everyone’s ass, and created friction with officers. The commanders told McPhee to get him under control or we’ll make sure he’s out of Special Forces forever.

The problem was fixable. Kennedy simply hadn’t learned what the Army should have taught him. He went straight from civilian life to working under Delta Force. He didn’t understand the gravity. When one helicopter is down and you can only take 24 guys instead of 36, somebody stays home. Don’t take it personally. That’s just math.

McPhee’s corrective lesson came at midnight in the unit dojo. He told Kennedy: “Meet me at the dojo at midnight. You’re going to kick all of our asses? All of our asses?” What Kennedy didn’t know was that while he was pouting, other guys were telling McPhee that they’d be at the dojo. “I want a piece of this action,” each one said

They fought in order of rank. Kennedy did well for two, three, maybe four guys. One senior guy was a Golden Gloves boxer who just threw combinations. McPhee went second to last (the captain went last). McPhee bloodied Kennedy up, put him down, and whispered: “I hope we don’t have to have this talk again.” Then he and the guys walked out, leaving Kennedy bleeding and broken on the ground.

The lesson wasn’t about dominance. It was about teams. You can’t beat us all. This is a team sport. We’re a pack. We should be a dozen lone wolves, but when those wolves come together as a pack, you have a dozen alpha wolves working together. That’s better than one lead dog and a bunch of followers.

McPhee protected Kennedy by sending him to Ranger School when commanders wanted him gone. Kennedy hated it, complained bitterly (almost getting himself kicked out for that), but learned what he needed to know. Years later, as a team sergeant himself at age 40 (the age McPhee was when managing him at 34), Kennedy called to say he finally understood and appreciated what McPhee had done.

McPhee’s core leadership principles:

Shut Your Mouth: New guys must earn their place. The only thing you’re given that can’t be changed is your name. Don’t fuck it up.

Technical Proficiency: Master every skill. On solo missions, you’re your own medic, comms specialist, weapons expert, explosives handler. No one’s coming to help.

Value Life Over Killing: Preserve the lives that matter. You can’t kill your way to victory.

Immediate Accountability and the Hall Pass: After kills, McPhee cut shirts off targets to examine shot placement. He praised shooters on the spot: “This is exactly what I expected you to do. You did a great job. End of discussion.” Then he’d buy drinks and make sure everyone shook hands. This “hall pass” (immediate validation and closure) reduced PTSD by addressing moral injury in real-time rather than letting it fester for years.

McPhee checked bullet holes constantly, not to criticize shooters but because marksmanship was his problem as the leader, not theirs. If shots were off, they’d fix training immediately. But McPhee says he never saw bad shots. All his guys shot perfect center mass. The truth is that leadership validation matters more than millimeter precision.

Overcoming PTSD: The Hall Pass and Biological Fixes

McPhee experienced every symptom of PTSD and traumatic brain injury but scored zero on VA assessments. His method combined immediate psychological intervention with biological optimization:

The Hall Pass: On mission nights when someone made a kill, McPhee debriefed immediately. Cut the shirt, examine shot placement, praise the work, have drinks, facilitate team recognition. Handle moral injury in real-time. Don’t give guys a five-year-old hall pass they have to unfuck later through alcohol and therapy. Give them closure immediately.

Let It Go: Literally say “let it go” repeatedly. Your book isn’t over. This is one chapter. More chapters are coming, possibly better ones. Get over yourself and move on.

Fix Biology: Forgetfulness wasn’t TBI. It was cognitive function. McPhee bought a TomTom GPS because he didn’t need to remember directions; the device would handle it. Then he discovered MCT oil and proper protein intake fixed his brain function. The “PTSD symptom” was actually nutritional deficiency.

Moderate Vices: Heavy drinkers needed to cut from five bottles to two and a half. The reason you’re mean in the morning isn’t PTSD. It’s being hungover and used to it. Use alcohol wisely, not as self-medication.

None of McPhee’s direct reports carry significant PTSD, he says. The contrast with conventional military units is stark. McPhee believes PTSD isn’t a war thing. It’s a humanity thing. A kid watching his cousin get hit by a train can be fucked up forever. Combat without proper leadership intervention causes the same damage.

Lessons Learned: Universal Principles for Any Profession

McPhee’s career offers lessons well beyond military service. Here are a few bits below.

Autonomy Requires Competence: McPhee thrived when given autonomy because he had developed technical proficiency first. You can’t demand independence without proving capability first. Master your craft, then earn freedom.

Control What You Can Control: From an abused childhood to Taliban checkpoints, McPhee’s survival depended on emotional control. You can’t control incoming mortars, but you can control your response. This applies to business crises, personal setbacks, and any high-stress situation.

Teams Beat Individuals: Even the most talented individual can’t beat a coordinated team of competent people. The lone wolf mythology is bullshit. A dozen alpha wolves working as a pack crushes any solo operator.

Immediate Feedback Prevents Long-Term Damage: Whether it’s combat trauma or workplace mistakes, address issues immediately. McPhee’s hall pass worked because he didn’t let moral injury fester. In business, don’t let small problems become cultural cancers. Cut the shirt, examine the damage, validate what worked, fix what didn’t, move on.

Biology Affects Performance: McPhee’s “PTSD symptoms” were partly nutritional deficiency and hangovers. In any high-performance field, optimize sleep, nutrition, and substance use. Your brain is hardware. Maintain it properly.

Strategic Patience, Tactical Aggression: McPhee didn’t sprint the 25-mile ruck march. He didn’t kill everyone immediately and destroy intelligence value. He was patient strategically but aggressive tactically. Walk through the creek while others waste time messing with garbage bags, exploit networks methodically before taking down leadership.

Preparation Compounds: McPhee turned his worst O-course run into a top-three finish through relentless extra work with experts. He turned pistol weakness into program dominance the same way. Consistent preparation in off-hours creates performance advantages when it matters.

Protect Your People Even When They Hate You: Sending Kennedy to Ranger School made Kennedy hate McPhee temporarily but saved his career later on. Good leaders make unpopular decisions that serve long-term interests. If you need everyone to like you, you can’t lead effectively. Earn respect.

Efficiency Is Speed and Accuracy Applied Simultaneously with Perfect Technique: This is McPhee’s mantra for shooting, but it applies universally as well. Doing things fast and wrong creates a mess. Doing things slow and perfect misses critical deadlines. It’s the combination (efficient technique executed quickly and accurately) that wins.

Your Past Doesn’t Define Your Future: McPhee went from homeless at 12, living in a brothel with his brother, to the pinnacle of military special operations in war. Keep going. Keep improving. Keep learning. You’ll get your break.

SOB Tactical: Teaching Through Diagnostic Precision

After retiring in 2011 following a messy divorce (Delta doesn’t like messy divorces), McPhee founded SOB Tactical. He runs 60-100 classes annually and limits enrollment to 10 or fewer students. He’s trained about 15,000 people since 2011: housewives, professional shooters, SWAT teams, Special Forces, anyone.

The diagnostic method to his training is revolutionary in its simplicity: video everything. First thing in the morning, shoot three rounds. McPhee analyzes the video and explains exactly where bullets go, why they go there, how to fix it. In 43 rounds during a one-day pistol class, he gets anyone into a three-inch group at 3-5 yards. Anyone. Bring your lame, crippled, and crazy. Shaky hands, blind old guys, doesn’t matter. He loves the challenge, but he also has supreme confidence in his skills and experience.

The training isn’t about techniques. It’s about teaching people how to think so they can solve problems themselves. The model that improves pistol shooting improves anything you do. It’s all mindset.

McPhee calls SOB Tactical “the undertow of the gun world.” Flashy competitors rise and fall on top of the industry. McPhee stays underneath, consistent, and pulls students in year after year. He’s been crushing it since 2011 and fills all his classes, while other big names come and go.

Current Mission and Legacy

On a personal level, McPhee trains for Masters Worlds in jiu-jitsu and plans to compete against guys his age. If it goes well, he might enter the open division next year. He’s rolling every day and he treats training camps like extended hotel stays. Might as well hit a dojo and get a day of rolls in. What else would you do?

His philosophy remains unchanged today. He’s emphatic that the past doesn’t ruin his present, he approaches death without fear, and he believes everyone dies doing what they choose. Combat deaths are among the most honorable. He’s already outlived his father, who died at 50. Both parents are dead, in fact. He has no family except his brother. Everyone dies early in his family, so he’s making the most of the time he has.

The lesson from McPhee’s entire life is simple. You can come from nothing, face the worst humanity offers, see the darkest parts of war, and still build something meaningful. The key is never quitting, never letting one chapter define the book, and always maintaining the discipline to be technically proficient at whatever you do. That much you can control.

Whether you’re in special operations, corporate leadership, entrepreneurship, or any challenging field, McPhee’s principles apply: control what you can control, master your craft, value your team over individual glory, address problems immediately, optimize your biology, and never stop building the next chapter.

Works for me.

The Dollar’s New Weapon

Brent Johnson, creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, posted what he considers one of his most important reports yet — Empire by Code: The Rise of USD Stablecoins. He also explains the issues around stablecoins in two recent interviews with Adam Taggart and Viva/Barnes. He says that USD stablecoins are not just another fintech innovation but instead they represent a fundamental shift in how America projects monetary power globally.

Understanding the Dollar Milkshake Theory

First, some context. Johnson’s Dollar Milkshake Theory says that despite the concerns about US deficits and debt, capital will flow into the United States during times of financial crisis. The world has borrowed enormous amounts of dollars through what’s called the Eurodollar system. When serious geopolitical or monetary conflicts emerge globally, everyone needs dollars to service their debts, which creates a massive sucking sound as liquidity flows to America. “The United States would suck up all the money that gets printed as a result of responding to the crisis,” Johnson says.

The “milkshake” metaphor is interesting. Think of global dollar liquidity as a milkshake sitting in a glass. The world is full of dollars created through lending, which represents all that debt denominated in US dollars sitting outside America. The United States has the straw. So, when a crisis strikes and everyone desperately needs dollars to settle their debts, the US essentially sucks up all that liquidity, like drinking a milkshake through a straw. Thus, capital flows into the United States, which makes the dollar stronger while other currencies weaken.

Johnson traces how he arrived at this theory: “The thesis was based on the fact that I think the world has borrowed an incredible amount of money. The debt has gotten to a level where I think we’re going to start having the consequences of borrowing all that money.” Despite believing the US has created many problems through its monetary policies, Johnson concluded that “the capital of the world would flow into the United States and the United States would suck up all the money that gets printed as a result of responding to the crisis.”

A Transformative Event in Monetary History

In his report “Empire by Code: The Rise of USD Stablecoins,” Johnson frames the emergence of USD stablecoins as potentially “a transformative event in monetary history, one as consequential as the day the United States severed its link to gold and as powerful in shaping the world’s financial order as the moment it abandoned Bretton Woods.” These are serious moves taking place.

The report opens with a warning from Carl von Clausewitz’s “On War”: “I shall proceed from the simple to the complex. But in war more than in any other subject we must begin by looking at the nature of the whole; for here more than elsewhere the part and the whole must always be thought of together.”

Johnson applies this principle to money. As he writes in the executive summary: “Money, like strategy, is an ecosystem of power. Every instrument, market, and institution serves a purpose within a larger design, and none can be truly understood in isolation. This is why money and power are inseparable. Each reinforces the other, and together they shape the hierarchy of nations.”

The report examines several interconnected components: the Eurodollar market, SWIFT, the GENIUS Act (recent US legislation governing stablecoins), and the rise of stablecoins. But Johnson emphasizes they must be understood as “expressions of a single whole” through which the United States projects, maintains, or adapts its influence.

His conclusion is stark: “What is emerging is not just a new currency system, but a new form of control.”

The Eurodollar System: Dollars Outside America

To understand why stablecoins matter, we need to understand the Eurodollar market first, which very few people know even exists. This is not about euros or Europe specifically. Instead, it’s the market for US dollars that exist outside the United States. And it’s massive!

Johnson traces its origins: “Post World War II we had the Bretton Woods agreement where the dollar was the global reserve currency.” The Soviet Union was receiving dollars from trade but “didn’t want to put them in a US bank because they could be confiscated.” So they placed these dollars in European banks, which then used them as collateral to make new US dollar loans. That process enabled the creation of new US dollars — but outside the American regulatory authorities.

This created what Johnson calls a critical dynamic: “Most of the money printing that everybody likes to say ‘money printer go burr,’ it’s actually done by the commercial banks and the global commercial banks and even non-financial entities and non-bank institutions. It’s not so much the governments themselves printing the money.”

The system exploded after Nixon ended the gold standard and the United States convinced Saudi Arabia to price oil in dollars. “That turbocharged the need for dollars and that made this Eurodollar market grow even more,” Johnson says. Today, “the size of the Eurodollar market, which is the market for dollars outside the domestic United States, is orders of magnitude larger than the market for dollars inside the United States.”

Johnson emphasizes a truly unimaginable scale: “It’s at least a hundred trillion and probably 700 trillion if you started adding up derivatives and off-balance sheet items and non-bank entities and non-bank financial institutions. It’s just this monster out there that has grown on its own.”

Stop. Go back and read the last paragraph again. Unreal.

The catch? The US doesn’t fully control this system. Transactions run through SWIFT, essentially “the central nervous system for the global financial system,” but it’s a European system. “The US has more control than any other country. But they don’t have full control. They don’t have full visibility,” Johnson says.

What Are Stablecoins?

Johnson defines a stablecoin as a digital token issued by either a financial firm or a company that remains stable against a certain asset. Unlike Bitcoin, which has been highly volatile, stablecoins maintain price stability by being backed with US Treasuries.

The key feature is that stablecoins represent “a way to have a digital dollar that you can send, spend, and transact with that settles instantly anywhere in the world.” And crucially, “you don’t even need a bank to do it.”

Johnson admits he initially missed the significance: “Stablecoins have been around for six or seven years, right? And I was very skeptical of them initially.” Part of his skepticism came from questionable practices by early issuers like Tether, which “didn’t want to be audited” and had “some very shady practices to say the least.”

But as the system developed, Johnson came to realize “not only did I miss it, but everybody else who I think is continuing to miss it. And even those who are big advocates for them, I think are missing the real play.”

Beyond Treasury Demand

The narrative around stablecoins focuses on a straightforward benefit, which is that they create new demand for US Treasury debt. Here’s how it works. To maintain their dollar peg, stablecoin issuers must hold US Treasury bills as backing. As stablecoin adoption grows, so does the need to purchase Treasuries. With the US facing high debt service costs and massive refinancing needs, this new marginal buyer seems like a convenient solution.

While the Trump administration has promoted stablecoins primarily for this Treasury demand feature, Johnson says that this misses a bigger picture. “I think that’s really a secondary benefit,” he says. “I actually am of the belief that the US would not have that much trouble selling Treasury bills if stablecoins didn’t exist.”

Johnson says that the real strategic advantage is control and redollarization. The Treasury demand story, while true, is almost a distraction from what stablecoins actually enable. They don’t just help finance US debt. They fundamentally restructure how dollars flow around the world and who controls those flows, especially in geographies where hundreds of millions of people aren’t even banked. Again, the scale of those potentially new markets for the US dollar is unimaginable.

Even geopolitical rivals recognize this threat. Johnson says that “you’ve seen Putin make comments about the US dollar stablecoin” and other countries making comments “in some kind of a negative sense because they’re scared of it and they should be.”

But the real story could be much bigger. It’s about actually replacing the Eurodollar system with something the US can fully control, and dollarizing populations that were previously out of reach. If the US is successful implementing this strategy, it will represent a remarkable achievement and a reassertion of American monetary policy globally, which in recent decades has been eroded by the massive growth of the Eurodollar post World War II.

Money as a Tool of Control

To understand the strategic implications, Johnson emphasizes a fundamental truth about money: “Money is used as a tool or as a means of control that governments use against its own citizens or to marshal its citizens in a certain way. Really powerful countries can use money to get other countries to do what they want to do.”

This isn’t theoretical. As Johnson says, “Money as a weapon, this isn’t some idea that I just came up with. This is military doctrine. The United States Army, Marines, they know how to use money as a weapon. It’s taught at their colleges. It’s implemented in their actions when they’ve been in foreign theaters.”

The power of the dollar stems from its role as global reserve currency. “By the fact that the global reserve currency is the US dollar, the US has more control over the global monetary system than any other one government.” But that control has been incomplete because of the Eurodollar system’s opacity outside the United States.

The Empire Strikes Back

Johnson uses a Star Wars analogy to explain the coming financial war. “At the end of the first movie they blow up the Death Star, right? That’s a huge victory and we created Bitcoin and it’s achieved escape velocity or whatever. But the next eight movies aren’t about peace and love in the galaxy. The battle continues.”

Johnson says the idea that the US would simply accept displacement is naive. “A lot of people tell me the US is the great evil in the world or it’s the global bully or it’s designed the system that enslaves the world through taxation and theft via inflation. And then they also tell me that [the US] can’t possibly win the next round. I’m like, they just enslaved the whole world by your own admission, but they’re just going to roll over and the next round’s going to go to the next guy?”

Cryptocurrency was designed to escape government control. Now that same technology is being co-opted to extend control. “The dollar is already the ring of power, in my opinion, and this is a way to just entrench it even more,” Johnson says. “And the craziest thing, in the same way that the Eurodollar market built the Eurodollar prison that the world is now in, stablecoins is a way to turbocharge that and not only turbocharge it but give the US more control over it.”

Johnson is not clear who does actually control the Eurodollar system. But some analysts have speculated that it’s primarily European banks, which may help explain the current stress between Trump and Europe as the US make clear moves to reassert control over its own monetary policy — see LIBOR vs SOFR here and here.

In “Empire by Code,” Johnson describes how “quiet code and public ledgers are no longer just symbols of rebellion against the state. They are becoming extensions of it.” The tools once imagined to escape central authority are being absorbed by what he calls “the most powerful monetary authority the world has ever known.”

Johnson sees this as the US co-opting private market innovation: “The US is co-opting the innovation that was designed to escape the prison. And so I think initially that is why these stablecoins and digital assets and crypto, however you want to describe this whole ecosystem was developed.”

Unlocking Global Dollar Demand

The scale of opportunity is staggering. Johnson estimates that “easily 50 and probably 70” percent of people globally would prefer to earn and transact in dollars over their local currencies if given the choice. Currently, international capital controls and banking restrictions create enormous friction to transfer money. Stablecoins remove those barriers entirely.

“If you live in, let’s just say Turkey, and you want to hold a US dollar balance, you have to open a bank account and then it has to be with a bank that allows you to hold dollars,” Johnson says. The Turkish government can then limit how much you can hold and restrict when you can withdraw it, especially during a currency crisis.

With stablecoins, “anybody who doesn’t even have a bank” can hold dollar balances on their phone. “As long as there’s an internet connection they can connect to the internet, open, download a wallet and they can transact or they can hold these US dollar stablecoins.”

This creates an existential threat to national sovereignty for some countries. “The ability for citizens to exit the local currency” becomes dramatically easier. “If the Turkish government loses control of the monetary system within Turkey and citizens now start to hold dollar balances rather than lira balances, the Turkish government starts to lose control. They don’t like that.”

Johnson emphasizes the pattern: “If you look back through history, any country that has had a currency crisis or whose currency has failed, the government typically fails shortly thereafter. And again, it goes back to control. It’s because money is a means of control. And if you can’t control the money, then you can’t control the society.”

Why People Choose Dollars

Johnson pushes back against the idea that dollar demand is artificial or coerced. On a fiat versus fiat basis, the choice is clear. “Most global trade for the most part takes place in dollars, especially commodity based. They’re invoiced in dollars. They’re transacted in dollars.” As an aside, it seems ironic that this is what happened in recent decades with the Eurodollar surpassing the value and control of the domestic American dollar. Could that be why the US is making these moves under Trump now?

Importantly, “that was not the United States going around and telling a manufacturer in Turkey that they had to do business in dollars with a trade partner in India. Those two entities chose to do that because it was the most liquid and it was the safest and it was the most convenient out of all the fiat options.”

Even when Bitcoin advocates argue that unbanked populations could use Bitcoin, Johnson notes that “if given the choice to do it in dollars, a huge chunk of them, maybe the vast majority, would pick dollars for the reasons we mentioned.” This is the network effect on display. The dollar has the network. Bitcoin doesn’t.

“The dollar is kind of like Twitter. Everybody loves to hate Twitter. Everybody says they’re going to leave. Everybody says they’re going to go use a different one, but everybody ends up coming back to Twitter because that’s where everybody is. And the dollar is kind of the same way.”

A CBDC By Another Name?

This raises some uncomfortable questions. Are stablecoins just Central Bank Digital Currencies in disguise? The EU has been openly developing a digital euro, which Christine Lagarde continues to promote as Europe tries to maintain monetary control over disparate EU nations and perhaps even assert more control globally.

Johnson acknowledges the concern directly. When asked if all the fears people had about CBDCs are now back on the table, he responds: “I think they’re back on the table.” The government would know exactly what citizens are spending money on, there would be no cash for anonymous transactions, and authorities could shut down accounts at will.

The political workaround is elegant. “Trump said we’re never going to have a central bank digital currency. And there was always push back against that because the United States was founded on individual freedom and individual rights. A central bank digital currency is in many ways un-American.”

But Johnson sees through the semantics. “The way they’ll get around that is they’ll just make it a treasury coin rather than a central bank coin. But at the end of the day, it is a digital, it is a CBDC. It’s just called something differently.”

The distinction matters politically but perhaps not practically for regular Americans. Whether issued by the Treasury or the Federal Reserve, the result is the same. Stablecoins are programmable money that can be monitored and controlled.

Johnson even suggests this could reshape the relationship between Treasury and the Fed. “I think this is also one of the ways in which Treasury gets control over the Fed.” The ability to issue digital currency directly could circumvent the traditional banking system entirely. “If the treasury issues a stablecoin, it is a way to circumvent the banks because everybody could just open an account directly with the treasury.”

Domestic Implications: Do We Still Need Banks?

The implications extend far beyond international markets. “If you have a US dollar stablecoin that’s issued by the Treasury, you don’t really need the banks, right?”

The current banking system exists partly because of infrastructure requirements. But stablecoins change that calculus. “You certainly don’t need 14,000 banks. Maybe you need 10 or 20.”

Johnson admits uncertainty about the exact implementation: “I don’t know if they’re going to issue an official US dollar stablecoin, if they’re going to grant licenses to 20 different entities and then they create their own stablecoins, or maybe they’ll just let anybody issue their own stablecoin so long as they follow the rules that are outlined in the GENIUS Act.”

Regardless of the specific path, “new battle lines are drawn and people are going to compete for that territory.”

A New Form of Control

This creates what Johnson calls “financial battlefields” everywhere. Money is fundamentally about control, and when governments lose control of their currency, they lose sovereignty itself. “If you are subservient to a form of money that you cannot control, you are no longer sovereign,” he says.

The programmable nature of stablecoins gives the US unprecedented visibility and control compared to the opaque Eurodollar system. Unlike SWIFT, the stablecoin rail infrastructure is “very elegant and very controllable and highly transparent for whoever is programming.”

Johnson elaborates on the difference: “These stablecoins via code, these channels are not only visible, but they’re programmable. And so it gives the US complete visibility or potentially gives the US complete visibility and control. They can shut it down. They can open it up. They can turn somebody’s money off. They can turn it back on.”

As Johnson writes in his report: “What happens when the private innovation that once sought to liberate markets instead becomes the instrument through which a superpower consolidates them? What if the next great disruption does not weaken the empire, but strengthens it?”

Johnson’s conclusion is sobering: “This is about as an elegant way to invade another country without even people realizing it that I’ve ever seen.”

Can Countries Resist?

Johnson expects resistance but doubts its effectiveness. “Without question, there’s going to be a battle. And I don’t know exactly how this is going to play out. And the other countries will without question fight back because they have to. If they don’t fight back, they will cease to exist.”

The challenge is that resistance requires heavy-handed tactics: “The reason governments exist is because they have a monopoly on violence. And I hate to bring that up, but that’s the truth. And so if they throw people in prison or if they take their businesses or confiscate their assets, that will deter people from breaking the law, quote unquote, in that country, but it won’t stop everybody.”

Stronger countries like China have better defenses. China can “probably introduce their own CBDC or whatever it is. And internally that probably is better at defending against the dollar stablecoin than perhaps Turkey or Egypt or Afghanistan or Venezuela would be.” But even there, “I don’t think it will be perfect and I think it will still seep in, right? It’s like water. It just seeps in. It’s hard to keep it completely out.”

Europe faces particular challenges. “Europe is just in so much trouble. I just don’t know how else to say it.” Christine Lagarde talking about the digital euro shows “they’re trying as hard as they can to maintain control,” but their position is weak and growing more so over time.

A broader question looms. “What does this do over time to everybody who chose team America?” in the recent reshuffling of global trade. Johnson’s answer? “I think they’re going to get dollarized.”

Understanding Reality, Not Celebrating It

It’s important to note that Johnson takes a deliberately analytical stance on stablecoins rather than advocating for a specific outcome. When Taggart points this out in the interview, saying “You’re not a dollar lover,” Johnson responds, “This scares me to be honest.”

Taggart clarifies: “You are just trying to help people understand the world as it is and as it is likely to be.” Johnson isn’t cheerleading for dollar dominance through stablecoins. He’s describing what he sees as inevitable given the incentive structures of nation-states and the dynamics of power.

Throughout both interviews, Johnson emphasizes uncertainty. “I don’t have this completely figured out,” he says. “I don’t know exactly how this is going to play out. Again, I’m sure there will be some unintended consequences.”

He wrestles with the implications openly. “I think of a country like a farm or a ranch, it makes a lot more sense. Some ranches are free range and they let you roam around and eat whatever you want, but at the end of the day, you’re still staying within those confines. Other ranchers have you locked up in a really tight pin and you get outside for one hour a day and they give you not very good food to eat. But at the end of the day, it’s livestock. It’s management of livestock.”

Despite predicting that stablecoins will strengthen dollar dominance, Johnson’s investment advice reflects genuine concern about the outcome. He recommends owning gold and hard assets as “a put on the whole system” because “I don’t know that this is going to go well. I don’t know that it’s going to go perfectly. It may very well cause chaos. And gold probably does well in a world where there is chaos.”

His reasoning is that “there’s nothing more bullish for gold than a strong dollar because a strong dollar kind of wrecks the system and causes chaos. And gold does pretty well in chaos.”

For people who say the US cannot possibly win the next round of global monetary competition, Johnson offers a realistically stark reminder: “If that is your belief, you are betting against immeasurable power.” He’s not celebrating that power, though. He’s warning people to understand it so they can attempt to position themselves accordingly.

As he writes in “Empire by Code”: “This paper does not offer reassurance of the status quo. It confronts a reality that few seem to have yet recognized and even fewer truly understand.”

Hanoi, Vietnam, 2024

Manage your Mind, Deflect Propaganda

If you don’t actively manage your mind then professional propagandists will happily manage your mind for you — and they know exactly what they are doing.

There are many techniques you can use to fight propaganda. Some of them are direct and public, but this one is subtle and private. No one needs to know you’re doing it. It’s meditation. And the more you practice the better because your mind is at stake. There are many types of meditation, but I use a very simple technique. It’s based on Theravada Buddhism, which is my personal favorite, but you can insert any religion into this technique that you want. And if you aren’t especially religious I’ve offered a simple alteration that works just as well.

First, go to this site. You’ll find 25 years of short meditation talks there. Pick one. Put on your headphones and listen to the talk while sitting in a chair in the dark. Close your eyes and listen to the speaker as your single object of focus. Don’t waste time thinking about work or the Internet or anything else. Think only about the talk you are listening to. Try to understand it. That will help train your mind to focus on one thing only without wandering off to the next thing, such as a random or unrelated thought. That little bit right there is critical. Your mind will fight this, by the way. Fight back. Focus. Now, in this part of the exercise you are actually thinking, but you’re thinking in a way that narrowly focuses your mind. It may sound odd but you actually have to use some thinking to eventually transcend thought. Over time, though, that thinking narrows to the point of pretty much nothing. Once you are there, you know you are making real progress. It just takes some time.

Anyway, when the talk ends keep your eyes closed for another 20 minutes and replace the talk as your single object of focus with another single object of focus — maybe a word or a mantra from your religion, or just follow your breath moving in and out. When a random thought comes, recognize it as a thought and gently push it away or just ignore it. You will have to think to do this, but that’s ok. Move back to your tool of focus. Another way to think about random thoughts is to see them as teases. That’s your mind trying to stop the mediation process. But that incoming thought can only live by capturing your attention. It feeds off your attention. Ignore it. It’s a trap. When another one comes, recognize it, ignore it. Repeat. That’s it. That’s the entire process. The skill you are developing using this insanely simply process is the development of sustained concentration. And don’t be fooled by the simplicity here. By actively pushing away thoughts, or just ignoring them until they give up and go away, you are exercising your ability to control your mind and focus your attention. Think of it asa work out at the gym. You get stronger with practice. As a result, over time you will grow less susceptible to getting captured by random thoughts flying by. And that that skill will come in handy when dealing with propagandists, who are also trying to capture your attention. The process is similar.

The purpose of starting with a little audio lecture is to get you motivated to sit and meditate. It also starts the focusing process, which absolutely takes a few minutes and that’s the time when most people quit. Remember that most people can’t meditate even for a few seconds before quitting so cut yourself some slack and just move slowly. Do a few minutes. Then maybe ten. Then more. And keep going. If you’re not that religious and think all this is dumb try it with a physics lecture or whatever you like. Audio only, though. No visuals. Same process. Maybe use the word Einstein as your mantra, I don’t care. I use Hindu and Buddhist words. If you’re not into Buddhism then just use whatever religion you like. Christians may repeat Amen or the Rosary. All religions have short prayers and words you can use as mantras. If you don’t like religion, maybe just use the word Love, I don’t know. Pick one and do it. The words themselves become meaningless after a few hundred iterations so it doesn’t matter much. The point is to use a single point of focus to narrow your attention and then eventually thwart thought itself. Very few people can do this, by the way. That’s why they laugh or roll their eyes when you describe this process and your experience doing this practice.

Meditation will train your mind to focus so that you and your conscious mind are more in control of your life. Do this every day and you may notice after a few months that you are less susceptible to all the noise in life. You may start to question things more as well. The news may start to look ridiculous. You may be able to spot some of our favorite so-called leaders for what they really are — propagandists. All those people shouting at you to do this or to do that may simply seem too shrill to be credible because you have developed a quite state internally. All the madness they create in their wake may seem to move slower so you can process the information better. Some of their messages just won’t make sense any longer. Hopefully you won’t feel so overwhelmed or afraid or terrorized. That’s because meditation is an excellent exercise to thwart propaganda because it teaches you to NOT just accept the next thought that comes along — no matter who it comes from, either yourself or someone outside in the world.

The thing you are looking for here is to get used to experiencing longer and longer periods of silence between thoughts. Really very few people know what this feels like because it doesn’t come naturally. It takes training. That’s why the Buddhists say that meditation is a “practice” because you have to be taught and you have to work at it every day. And by “every day” these guys mean pretty much all day, every day, for as many days as you have. They understand their minds in ways that would surprise most people. That’s beyond most of us who have to work for a living, but take their advice at any level you can and just start. Real progress is possible and noticeable in relatively short periods of time.

Remember, if you don’t control your mind, others will happily do it for you and they are highly skilled at the process. Recognizing these people is important because their propaganda is absolutely everywhere. It’s designed to influence your thoughts in specific ways, which leads to you acting in specific ways. And it will distract you and eventually wreck your life — just like random thoughts darting around your head will distract you and keep you from progressing in mental practices like meditation. Don’t take the bait. Also, remember that you can’t solve this problem of deflecting propaganda by using intellectual processes such as research, discussion, and debate. That just leads to more noise, more stress, and more arguments. Instead, it’s the eventual absence of the intellect that you’re looking to cultivate with exercises like meditation. Some people call this transcendence. Others call it concentration. And the concept is anti-intuitive. It has to be experienced directly to be understood.

Now, your brain is wired to think from birth and that’s a useful tool in this physical world. But it has some dangerous side effects that are easily exploited by our friends on power. The problem is that your brain is ALWAYS thinking and most of those thoughts are just crap repeat teases from yesterday, the day before, and the day before that. Propagandists know this. They know all humans are mostly mindless and easily influenced via language — especially language delivered by powerful authorities intentionally causing conflict to induce fear. It’s also how propagandists hide. They hide under all the distractions and contradictions. This is why you can’t argue with them or their supporters. Those arguments are themselves a distraction and provide cover for the propagandists pulling the strings. Learn to manage your thoughts and over time those invisible actors can gradually be seen as clear as day. It’s a shocking realization, too. Sometimes these people are actually hiding and you cant see them, but other times they are pushing their dark craft right out in the open with the support of millions. It’s all insane.

So, meditation is just a handy and private technique that you can use to help train yourself to thwart the influence of propaganda. It works. It’s one critical step you can use to take ownership of your mind. It’s not enough, though. There are other things you can do to defend yourself from propaganda, such as (1) disconnecting from the propagandists and their disinformation streams in the media and instead finding alternative sources of information, (2) connecting directly with other like-minded people who can see through the madness, and (3) creating parallel systems of support for all resources needed for life. That last one may take some time. I’m doing all three simultaneously. But I’m only choosing to talk about meditation for now because you can implement the technique immediately and privately and it starts at the level of the thought — which is the source of everything that leads to actions.

More on this issue in subsequent posts because this problem isn’t going away. In fact, it’s getting worse. Just look around. See how crazy the world is lately? And how many of your friends and neighbors have gone crazy in recent years? I mean, you have noticed this, right?

Kamakura Daibutsu in Kamakura, Japan

Armstrong on War

Martin Armstrong has spent decades tracking economic cycles and predicting major turning points in markets and geopolitics. In some of his predictions, he’s hit the mark down to the day. In a recent interview — Empires Always Fall — he warns that the unrelenting push toward war with Russia stems from desperation and will eventually lead to the economic collapse of Europe and the break up of the European Union. And, eventually, the United States.

Armstrong’s forecasting model centers on an 8.6-year cycle he stumbled on while studying financial panics dating back to 1683. The cycle, which works out to exactly 3,145 days, kept appearing everywhere he looked. “It was like oh, that’s pi,” he says, “which is the perfect cycle.” This mathematical constant shows up in ancient coins, the procession of the equinoxes, and across the universe itself. More importantly, it tracks the movement of capital around the world with remarkable precision. Always watch the capital flows.

Armstrong’s approach stands in contrast to how most analysis gets done these days. “The vast majority of analysis out there is linear, which comes from the classic physics side,” he says. “And it’s always wrong.” He uses climate change as an example. “Went up one degree this year, so it’s going to do that forever, and we’re all going to die in 50 years. There’s a cycle to everything. Nothing goes up forever.” Anyone who trades the markets understands this instinctively based on history and years of experience. You don’t assume that because the Dow went up a thousand points this month it will do that forever. 

Armstrong’s insight came from understanding how money actually behaves in real life. “Capital moves like a herd of wild animals,” he says. “I developed a model to track this.” The breakthrough for him came when he realized the model wasn’t just predicting financial crises. It was also predicting wars as well. “What I’ve learned over the years is that with capital, somebody always knows,” Armstrong says. War comes when you see the money start to move in advance. And we never see these conversations reflected in the media. 

Armstrong’s model has predicted wars before they happened because someone always knows what’s coming and starts moving their money. Before the Lebanese Civil War in the 1980s, his computer warned that the country would “fall apart in 8 days.” Eight days later, the war began. A shipping magnate in the Gulf called and told him Iraq would start attacking ships the next day. Listening to Armstrong, it’s clear he has a vast network of highly capitalized people in his circle of clients and friends.

By 1998, Armstrong understood the pattern completely. He stood up in London in June of that year and announced his computer said Russia was going to collapse. “I said I give it a little more than 30 days,” he says. What Armstrong didn’t realize was that the London Financial Times happened to be in the back of the room. They put it on the front page. “Armstrong says that Russia is going to collapse and we’re going to have a bunch of nukes running around.” Russia collapsed. The Long-Term Capital Management crisis followed. That’s when the CIA called. “They said, ‘All right, fine. We’ve been monitoring you guys for quite some time.'” They wanted Armstrong to build the model for them. He offered to run studies for them from his own office. “They said no, they had to own it and I said well it’s not for sale. So that started my whole nightmare with government.” Armstrong didn’t say in this interview that he ended up in jail for years over this, but he talks about the experience at length elsewhere. Cross the Deep State at your own risk.

When Hamas attacked Israel in October of last year, defense stocks started moving a week in advance. “It’s always the same thing,” Armstrong says. “It doesn’t matter what country we’re looking at. Somebody always knows.” At the top of the market where serious capital lives, the markets are objective, not emotional, and they show you what’s happening if you know how to read them.

These days Armstrong’s model is flashing red for Europe. Germany, which represents 25% of the EU’s GDP, has seen its economy actually shrink by 3 to 5 percent. That’s not a recession, Armstrong says, but instead it’s a permanent reduction in the number of available jobs. COVID lockdowns, climate change policies, and sanctions against Russia have devastated small businesses and the industrial base throughout the country. “The EU is doomed. It cannot recover,” he says. “They’re still running around with the climate change nonsense. And this is why they need war with Russia. No matter what government you look at, when they’re in trouble, they need an external enemy.”

Armstrong’s model doesn’t just predict that war is coming. It predicts the outcome as well. “I can tell you our computer warns that Europe will lose,” he says. “It’s in too much of a weak state economically.” Britain already spends over 3% of GDP on interest payments. Now NATO wants 5% on top of that for defense. At least 10% of GDP would be going to something that has nothing to do with improving the economy. You can’t win a war when your economic foundation is crumbling.

But Armstrong sees another motivation behind the war push, one that’s purely mercenary. “Russia is the richest country in the world from natural resources,” he says. “Even Maggie Thatcher said they had everything from platinum, gold, oil, timber. It’s estimated their natural resources were 75 trillion. That’s double the US national debt.” Some Europeans hold delusional fantasies about conquering Russia and seizing those resources. “If we can conquer Russia then we’ll have the 75 trillion, the US will be back to this vassal state and we will rise again like the Roman Empire,” Armstrong says. He also says he’s heard this thinking process firsthand. “I’ve heard this complete deranged nonsense. Oh, if we go into Russia and we remove Putin, they’ll give us like a ticker tape parade and cheer. I said, no, they’re not. They’re going to shoot your ass.” The problem is that neocons “demonize the opposition to the point that they just believe their own BS.”

In Germany, which is the economic engine for the EU, the fundamental problem runs even deeper than the current crises. The country has followed what Armstrong calls the mercantile model: “We build stuff, we sell it to you, we get rich.” But the wealth never reaches the people. Germans have the highest tax rates in Europe, and the net worth of an average German is less than that of an Italian. They’re selling the house to stay afloat. Meanwhile, “China has looked at both models,” Armstrong says. “It’s trying to copy the United States. It’s trying to create a consumer-based economy” with government controls over industry. The contrast is stark. “The capitalization of the New York Stock Exchange — just one exchange — is worth more than all of Europe combined. Home Depot, the IPO, when that was launched, was worth more than all the IPOs of Europe.”

The reason for Europe’s failure is ideological, Armstrong says. “They’re against capitalism. They’re against just about everything.” During World War I, European governments shut down all the stock markets. Now they’re pursuing digital currency as the ultimate control mechanism. “They go to a digital currency and that’s it. You can’t get it out.” Spain recently announced that people can’t withdraw more than $3,000 in cash from their accounts without government permission. “This is freedom? Oh, Putin’s a dictator. It’s beginning to look the other way around. Everything that they accuse Putin of, they’re doing. Denying free speech. It’s becoming much more like a socialistic communist state and it’s not sustainable.”

The European establishment is losing control, and the political landscape reflects this, Armstrong says. “Look at the AfD in Germany. They wanted to ban it at first. Then they called them all Nazis. Now it’s the number one party.” Similar shifts are happening across the continent. Portugal has moved right. Poland too. Nigel Farage’s Reform party in the UK is now number one in Britain. Kaja Kallas, the former prime minister of Estonia who now heads foreign policy in the EU, has come out and said Russia’s too big and needs to be broken up. Boris Johnson made the front pages of Norwegian newspapers saying that Britain is at war with Russia. This is all an openly declared proxy war, Armstrong says, where the old guard is desperate to hold on, and that desperation manifests as increasingly authoritarian control and the drumbeat for war. ​He doesn’t pull his punches. He’s emphatic. 

Armstrong is particularly critical of NATO’s role in all of this. “NATO is, its sole purpose is war,” he says. He’s seen the internal memos. When climate change funding threatened NATO budgets, officials panicked about losing their salaries and pensions for doing nothing. Their solution was to manufacture a threat. “They have to keep saying, ‘Oh, Putin wants to invade Europe.'” The absurdity is obvious to Armstrong. “Putin’s been there since 1999. Why hasn’t he? Because there’s nothing there.” Europe has tried to invade Russia three times throughout history. Russia has never tried to invade Europe.

Now NATO via the Trump Administration wants EU member states to spend 5% of GDP on defense. Britain already spends too much of its GDP on interest payments alone. “What are we talking about here?” Armstrong asks. “At least 10% of GDP is now going for something that totally has nothing to do with improving the economy.” This is economic suicide dressed up as security policy. The establishment is trying to retain power through oppression and military spending while the actual economy crumbles beneath them.

Moving to Ukraine, Armstrong is blunt about where the responsibility lies for the current conflict. “We created the whole Ukrainian war,” he says. Victoria Nuland was in Maidan handing out sandwiches. John McCain stood on there on stage saying we’re behind you, overthrow your government, America’s behind you. “Can you imagine if Lavrov from Russia stood on the steps of the capital building in the US saying to overthrow your government? We’re with you.” There was a peace deal in Ukraine early in the war. Boris Johnson hopped on a plane, went over there, and told them no, you’re not allowed to sign a peace deal, Armstrong says. We want war. “The death toll was basically 130,000 at that point. It’s now over a million. Do they care if any Ukrainian is still standing at the end of the day? No, they don’t.”

In the US Armstrong has heard neocon lunatic Lindsey Graham saying this is the best money we’ve ever spent to kill Russians. But what Armstrong heard from Europe is even worse. “They could care less about the Eastern Europeans. They were all basically communists anyhow. So send them in first. Let them be the vanguard. Let them die first. Take down as many Russians as you can.” The cynicism is complete. “They could care less if we live or die. There’s too damn many of us anyhow from their perspective.”

This pattern holds across history and geography. “War does not take place when everybody’s fat and happy,” Armstrong says. “Turn the economy down and that’s when you get war. People are aggravated.” Biden blamed inflation on Putin. Canadian leaders campaigned against Trump rather than addressing domestic issues. When governments face domestic crises, they reach for the oldest playbook. 

One problem with governments, he says, is their lack of institutional memory. “When you’re a kid, your parent will say, ‘Don’t stick your finger in that candle. It’s going to hurt.’ We all still do it.” But while individuals learn from pain, governments constantly change administrations. “There’s no collective memory. They don’t learn from past mistakes.” It doesn’t even seem they care about previous mistakes as well. 

Armstrong reserves particular criticism for the neoconservatives and their obviously limited thinking, which relies on linear analysis and regime change fantasies. “The neocons wage endless wars,” he says, “and they use linear analysis.” The pattern is always the same. “Oh, we’re going to take out Saddam. Does anybody ask, okay, if you’re successful, what comes next? They never ask that question.” Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq. None of them had a clear objective beyond the initial regime change. Afghanistan lasted 20 years. Iraq cost $3 trillion, and when you factor in the interest payments, “we’ll be paying $10 trillion for Iraq by the time you get to the 2030s.” The US is still paying interest on World War I debt. It never ends. “There’s no intention of ever paying off any debt,” Armstrong says.

And they’ve been at it for decades with Iran too. The biggest problem with pursuing war with Iran is that sanctions never work. “Sanctions never worked even once in history,” Armstrong says. The thinking process he’s heard is that sanctions will hurt the people, which is their objective, and then the people will rise up and overthrow their government. “Hasn’t worked once.” China just built a railway right into Iran and now gets 80% of Iran’s oil. Sanctions just push countries together and harm powerless populations, not the governments. Iran now has the backing of Russia and China. When we took out Iraq, “I can tell you they were like, wow, we got away with it. Russia, China, nobody stepped in. Okay, we’re all powerful. That’s not going to work with Iran.”

There are some common and obvious tactics governments use to start their wars to distract from economic collapse. False flag operations are the standard operating procedure, Armstrong says. “Usually what they do is they create a false flag. That’s very very common.” World War I and the Lusitania. The US said they were neutral and would never transport weapons. Germany said they were using passengers as a shield. In 1987 they discovered the Lusitania and suddenly the government admitted the hall was full of ammunition. “They lie about everything.” Project Northwoods proposed killing Americans and blaming Cuba. Kennedy said no and didn’t want to go into Vietnam. “So they took him out.” Richard Nixon had the head of the CIA in his office and said on tape, “I know who killed JFK.” Next thing you know, Watergate happens. Nixon later gave up his Secret Service protection. Why? Because he didn’t trust them. Hitler burned the Reichstag to blame the communists. Weapons of mass destruction in Iraq never existed. And the Gulf of Tonkin in Vietnam? “We were never attacked. Even Johnson had said for all he knew they were shooting at whales that night.” Churchill admitted that “the truth is so precious in war, it needs a bodyguard of lies to protect it.” And it goes on and on. Armstrong is clear about this pattern. “I don’t care what side you’re talking about, left, right, whatever, they all do it. This is standard.”

But there are backchannel communications constantly. The Iranian press recently said Iran called the United States to warn that they assumed Israel would create a false flag attack involving America to blame Iran and get the US engaged. “They said it’s not us and we’re telling you in advance of what they’re trying to do.” Armstrong believes Trump told Israel not to take out the supreme leader because regime change in the Middle East is particularly dangerous. “When you have just a dispute that’s economic, all right, fine. I’ll give you this territory. You give me this back. But this is religious. There is no compromise here.” The problem is that the West drew the borders after carving up the Ottoman Empire. “We didn’t do it ethnically or religiously.” They need dictators to hold these artificial countries together.

Armstrong sees all of these moves leading to the political destruction of the European Union. “We’re looking at, basically, the political destruction of Europe. They never designed the Euro correctly from the beginning” because they never consolidated the debt. The US faces similar risks but over a longer time period. “We’ve always seen the political divide. If Trump says the sky is blue, they have to say it’s red. They just have to take the opposite. So the country is basically screwed that way. We’re too polarized to survive.” The computer shows the US will break up just as Europe will. “I live in Florida and it’s like Florida is a completely different country from California.”

The uncontrolled mass migration crisis in the US and the EU adds another layer of constant instability. Armstrong references the Roman emperor Valens. When Attila the Hun marched toward the Roman Empire, Valens allowed the Goths fleeing the Huns to come in. He thought he could rebuild the Roman army. “So he trained them in Roman tactics and they said, thank you very much. They turned around and waged war on him and killed him in battle.” Migrants also bring disease. “Most of the [American] Indians died from the diseases that we [Europeans] brought.” The Black Plague came from Asia. The Tartars in Crimea started catapulting plague-infected bodies into Italian forts. The Italians fled, took it back to Europe, and a third of the population died. “Plagues always come from wars.” The Spanish flu started with World War I soldiers. “Plagues come largely with migrations and migrations are also correlated with wars.”

Armstrong’s verdict is pretty damning. But he’s been talking this way for some time, and he’s not backing down at all. “This is like a giant chess board to these neocons and they could care less if we live or die. We’ve got to wake the hell up. Who’s it benefiting? It’s not benefiting anybody.” And we can’t look to the media. “The press just gets paid to put out the standard BS as if this is moral, we have to save humanity when you’re really destroying it.”

His conclusion echoes an ancient well known warning. “Sun Tzu said that no country has ever benefited from a prolonged war.” Armstrong talks about one of the first famous examples. King Croesus of Lydia went to the Oracle at Delphi to ask about waging war against Cyrus the Great from Persia. The Oracle said a great empire will be destroyed. Croesus naturally assumed he would win. “The empire that was destroyed was his.”

Lessons from The Sheriff of Baghdad

The Shawn Ryan Show: John “Shrek” McPhee – The Sheriff of Baghdad | SRS #133

I loved this podcast with John “Shrek”McPhee on the Shawn Ryan Show. I have so much to learn from his insane experiences. I don’t care that some of his stories sound exaggerated, which they obviously are based on common sense and also some accounts from similar operators in the military. However, there’s more than enough in that mix of madness to learn some interesting perspectives for overcoming challenges. I learn from everyone. We all should.

McPhee’s journey from South Chicago to Delta Force reveals a career built on tactical innovation, brutal efficiency, and unreal level of focus. He’s a former Sergeant Major who didn’t just survive decades of special operations. No way. He thrived in that environment. He loved it. And he revolutionized how special operations teams approach combat.

After an abusive childhood, which included homelessness at age 12 and living in a brothel, McPhee joined the Army at 21 and quickly progressed through Rangers and Special Forces to Delta. His singleton missions remain legendary, which involved traveling alone for weeks through Pakistan, hitchhiking in local trucks, screaming at Taliban checkpoints to appear insane, and filming high-value targets with no backup support. In Iraq, his team ran dozens of raids regularly and systematically dismantled Saddam’s networks. He also killed the enemy in numbers that were “too many to count.” He had the time of his life back then. After retiring in 2011, McPhee founded SOB Tactical, and he’s trained 15,000 students to in shooting tactics. Today he teaches, engages in podcast interviews, and roams the United States visiting martial arts dojos to train.

Here are a few bits from the McPhee-Ryan podcast that can apply as useful lessons for anyone in any profession:

Autonomy Requires Competence
McPhee thrived when he was given autonomy because he’d already developed technical proficiency. You can’t demand independence on a team without first proving capability. Work hard. Master your craft. Then earn freedom. And if you can’t get that freedom dump that team and find a new one.

Control What You Can Control
From an abused childhood to Taliban checkpoints, McPhee’s survival depended on emotional control. He learned it as a kid and scaled the skill in the military. You can’t control incoming mortars, but you can control your response them. We all work with people we’d love to just delete, don’t we? We can’t. We must deal with them. And the first step is to control your own emotions so you can properly respond to the situation.

Teams Beat Individuals
Even the most talented individual can’t beat a coordinated team of skilled people. The lone wolf mythology is bullshit. A dozen alpha wolves working as a pack crushes any solo operator.

Immediate Feedback Prevents Long-Term Damage
Address issues immediately. McPhee’s didn’t let moral injuries fester on his teams. How many cancers are slowly and quietly growing on your team? I bet a lot. Look for them. Remove them. Or your best people will leave.

Biology Affects Performance
McPhee said his “PTSD symptoms” were partly nutritional deficiency and hangovers. Optimize for sleep and nutrition and reduce substance abuse. He’s simple that way. Your body is by far the single most important thing in this life and nothing even comes close. Take care of it.

Strategic Patience, Tactical Aggression
McPhee didn’t sprint 25-mile ruck marches like some others, which would have led to exhaustion. He also didn’t kill everyone immediately, which would destroy critical intelligence. Instead, he was patient strategically. But when the situation called for overt aggression he delivered. Sounds like planning and implementation to me. Most people don’t plan, they don’t adjust when circumstances change, and then just wing the action hoping for the best.

Preparation Compounds
McPhee turned his worst O-course run into a top-three finish through relentless extra work with experts. He turned pistol weakness into program dominance the same way. Consistent preparation in off-hours creates performance advantages when it matters. Practice. Learn. Do. Repeat. Most people try this but they lose momentum over time and give up. Keep going.

Protect Your People Even When They Hate You
Sending a subordinate who needed more work back to Ranger School made him hate McPhee temporarily but saved his career later on. Good leaders make unpopular decisions that serve long-term interests. If you need everyone to like you, you can’t lead effectively. Earn respect. Be aware of all the individuals on your team, not just the ones who are thriving. Who’s falling behind? Who needs more work?

Efficiency Is Speed and Accuracy Applied Simultaneously with Perfect Technique
This is McPhee’s mantra for shooting. Doing things fast and wrong creates a mess that just needs to be fixed. Doing things slow and perfect misses critical deadlines. It’s the combination (efficient technique executed quickly and accurately) that wins. This takes practice. Again, most people try this but they lack the persistence to excel in both skills at the same time.

Your Past Doesn’t Define Your Future
McPhee went from homeless at 12, living in a brothel with his brother, to the top of military special operations. Keep going. Keep improving. Keep learning. You’ll get your break. Most fail because they just give up.

The podcast ran over three hours. I’m sure you can find many more lessons to be learned. I like these though. For now, anyway.

Europe’s War vs Armstrong’s Peace

I’ve been following Martin Armstrong recently for his financial and geopolitical analysis. You won’t find his positions reflected in the media anywhere in the world. However, pretty much everyone who knows how the capital plumbing really works across global financial networks knows full well how where Martin sits. His knowledge is precise beyond measure. He can be hyperbolic at times so fair warning if you’ve never heard of him. He’s well worth a listen, though. He’ll expand your mind for sure. 

Armstrong goes to Washington

Anyway, in October 2025, Martin was called in by the Trump White House for a briefing on Russia. They wanted him to use his backchannel resources and experience and develop a peace proposal that Putin would accept. Note that the request was not to satisfy the Europeans or the Ukrainians. Trump’s goal is Putin exclusively at this point. That’s important. So, Martin spent four days writing a 200-page report called “US & Russia: Reestablishing Peace.” I read the report. It’s a nice backgrounder. It fills in many interesting details to support the interviews Martin has given where he’s talking about Russia, Ukraine, Europe, and the United States. 

After the initial White House meeting, however, he said he was disappointed and he’s expressed this view emphatically on multiple podcasts recently. Martin is prolific online so you can check any of them recorded after the White House meeting. What concerns him most is that Trump appears to be listening to the wrong people — specifically the Neocons and Europeans who he says are the greatest adversaries of the United States. 

For example, Trump’s recent sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies (Rosneft and Lukoil) represent what Russian officials have called “an act of war.” And Martin agrees. He says that throughout history, economic sanctions have been recognized as acts of war. Britain counterfeited American currency during the Revolutionary War. Hitler counterfeited British pounds. Napoleon did the same. These actions undermined enemy economies to achieve military victory.

Europe: The Real Adversary

Martin is always clear: “Our greatest adversary is NOT Russia, but NATO and the European Union.” Europe is collapsing economically — Germany has shrunk for two consecutive years, bankruptcies in Europe are rising faster than since 2008, and both the United Kingdom and France have warned they may need IMF bailouts. Yet desperate European leaders believe they can conquer Russia and access its $75 trillion in natural resources, which would allow Europe to “rise again like the Roman Empire.” Well, that’s quite an ambitious goal, eh?

Macron in France apparently thinks Russia is weak enough to defeat. British Defense Secretary John Healey is preparing multinational forces for Ukraine and emphasizes deterrence and confrontation rather than peace. Europe needs an enemy for distraction from impending economic failures, Martin says strongly. 

Also, the Neocons in the United States driving this agenda appear to have personal vendettas. Madeleine Albright, Victoria Nuland, and Merrick Garland all claim their families were persecuted by Russians. This isn’t geopolitical strategy. Instead, it’s personal hatred dressed up as foreign policy. And what about NATO? Well, Martin says that NATO lost its purpose when the Soviet Union collapsed, so it needs to present Putin as the next Khrushchev to maintain funding, power, and its reason for existence.

Trump’s Mistake

What bothers Martin is that Trump appears to be listening to these Neocons rather than pursuing the peace framework that makes the most strategic and economic sense. Martin’s Socrates computer model, which accurately predicted the 1987 stock market crash, the 1998 Russian default, and many other global events over nearly 50 years, targets 2026 as a Panic Cycle for war. The model shows zero chance for peace as long as Trump refuses to deal with warmongering Neocons and the inevitable economic collapse of the European Union.

The Peace Framework Armstrong Proposed

Martin’s peace proposal focuses on economic integration and not confrontation. Russia would end the Ukrainian war in exchange for honoring the original Minsk Agreement and allow Donbas self-determination through voting. The United States and Europe would lift sanctions in stages. Russia would commit to independent oversight, offer contracts for rare earths and critical metals, create special economic zones with investment guarantees, and pledge reforms including anti-corruption measures and transparency.

Putin has actually proposed cooperation in trade, technology, space, and Arctic development. He even suggested at the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska an $8 billion tunnel connecting Russia and the United States through the Bering Strait. These proposals reflect Putin’s understanding that free trade creates stronger peace incentives than continued confrontation. Joint ventures would remove the never-ending propaganda narrative that Russia intends to invade Europe and create real deterrents to war through economic interdependence. Trump generally supports the view of economic cooperation over warfare, but there are too many others in the administration pushing back. 

Why Sanctions Always Fail

Martin emphasizes that sanctions have never worked historically. Cuba’s sanctions were imposed in 1960 and remain in place decades after Castro’s death, never achieving regime change. The same applies to Iran. Western think tanks and NGOs continue forecasting Russian economic collapse, but unemployment in Russia has declined for 26 years during Putin’s administration.

The Stark Reality

If Putin is forced to capitulate through economic and potential military destruction, Martin predicts this would trigger a coup by Russian hardliners, just like the coups that removed Khrushchev and Gorbachev. This would replace moderate Russian leadership with aggressive nationalism and make genuine peace impossible. The current situation mirrors post-WWI reparations on Germany that led to Hitler’s rise.

Martin’s message to Trump is stark. If you think you can destroy the Russian economy and force Putin to his knees, understand the reality of geopolitics. If someone comes into your house with a gun wanting to kill you, you shoot back. Russia views sanctions as preparation for destruction. Putin will push the button rather than watch Russia collapse. Martin’s been saying this for years, but I doubt the Russians would seriously start a nuclear war. There are simply too many other military alternatives, all of which are seriously destructive.

Nevertheless, the escalation begins now, Martin says, with the worst period coming in the first quarter of 2026. Trump must stop listening to Neocons and European warmongers before it’s too late. The only path to peace is economic integration, not the destruction they continually pursue. Martin’s computer model has proven him right many times in the past and he argues that this time the stakes are much higher — World War III.

Martin made his peace proposal freely available to the public on October 23, 2025, for anyone to freely distribute. In mid-November, Trump’s team called Martin back for a second meeting and told him that his proposals remain under consideration. Whether the administration will ultimately adopt his framework over the objections of the Neocons and Europeans remains to be seen. It also remains to be seen if Martin’s proposal had any influence in Trump’s latest peace plan to end the war. 

The Future Belongs to Makers

I read The 2025 National Security Strategy. It’s well worth a look. There’s nothing that surprising in the document if you’re familiar with Trump’s positions. However, as an official American foreign policy strategy document, it’s an obvious break from decades of old and failed post-Cold War policies. 

The document rejects the pursuit of global hegemony that dominated American elite thinking for decades and says that leaders sacrificed the nation’s industrial base and middle class while pursuing an impossible dream of worldwide dominance. The document also says that globalism hollowed out the foundations of American power and allowed allies to ride freely on American defense spending and entangled the nation in institutions that are hostile to sovereignty. For many Americans who have struggled economically, what’s getting rejected in the document should represent a welcome change for the future. 

The document’s economic vision centers on reindustrialization. It also directly declares that “the future belongs to makers.” The strategy elevates industrial and manufacturing strength to the highest priority. The country must control critical supply chains, generate energy independence, and revive a sustainable industrial defense base. These changes are massive and will take time. They require strategic use of tariffs, reshoring entire production lines, and ensuring the nation never depends on adversaries for critical products. Most of this rhetoric is typical Trump, but to see it articulated in an official national security document from a White House intent on implementing the strategy seems new. When has an American president set a strategy based on a future of makers? That’s simply not the language of the elites we’ve been living under for what seems like forever. As someone who grew up in the construction industry and who now regularly mixes with engineers and scientists of all types, I like the makers reference a lot.

The reference to makers expands to all workers as well: “American policy will be pro-worker, not merely pro-growth, and it will prioritize our own workers. We must rebuild an economy in which prosperity is broadly based and widely shared, not concentrated at the top or localized in certain industries or a few parts of our country.” So, it’s not just the broad economy that’s being highlighted here. The strategy gets right down to making workers part of the country’s national security policy. That’s the middle class. That’s individualism.

Also interesting is that the only Founding Father cited in the document is Alexander Hamilton, who was known as an early architect of American industrial policy and pushing manufacturing over agrarianism. He said in the nation’s earliest days that America must never depend on outside powers for components necessary to defense or economy. By invoking Hamilton alone, the strategy signals a clear paradigm shift back to Hamilton’s view of economic nationalism, protective tariffs, and government support for domestic industry as the foundation of national power.

The strategy articulates core principles including peace through strength, a predisposition to non-interventionism, flexible realism, primacy of nations over international institutions (those would be the NGOs, of course), and insistence on fairness in alliances and trade. Border security becomes “the primary element of national security,” with the document declaring emphatically that the era of mass migration is over. Trump’s “Hague Commitment” requires NATO allies to spend 5 percent of GDP on defense, which most of those nations likely can’t afford given their social spending and likely won’t even attempt to fulfill. But we’ll see. 

Trump’s agenda to push NATO countries to contribute more to military spending also comes within the context that the United States is now intent on “Ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance.” That one sentence jumps right off the page in this document because the entire history of NATO has been based on never-ending expansion, which is one of the main points argued by Russia. Many people in the West have argued that NATO should have dissolved after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Perhaps Trump is building momentum for the United States to exit NATO in a phased process?

Regionally, the strategy announces what it calls a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. This concept reasserts American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere through military readjustment, border security operations including lethal force against cartels, and commercial diplomacy to push out foreign competitors. In the Indo-Pacific, the focus is winning the economic future while deterring military conflict, rebalancing trade with China, and maintaining conventional military advantages particularly regarding Taiwan. Although this focus on the Western Hemisphere may seem new to most people, I can remember at least a decade ago similar discussions taking place in various geopolitical communities I follow. But back then the concern was an economic collapse of the American Empire much like the collapse of the old British Empire. Yet today, it seems like these moves aren’t forced from economic depression or a foreign enemy. The United States seems to be choosing to disengage from the globalist empire building strategies of the past. 

Europe gets a lot of criticism in the document and the media is covering this issue way more than anything else in the strategy. But again, the information isn’t necessarily new given Trump’s pervasive rhetoric on Europe for many years. But I guess just embedding it into the nation’s official strategy position seems jarring to countries in the European Union and their supporters in the United States. The document strongly warns of “civilizational erasure” through migration, censorship, collapsing birthrates, and loss of national identity. The document also says that Europe has lost significant market share of global GDP in recent years, dropping from 25 percent in 1990 to 14 percent today. This trend down has been discussed for at least five years now so that’s not new either. However, to see it emphasized so heavily is surprising. The strategy calls for ending the Ukraine war to reestablish strategic stability with Russia, and it also encourages the growth of patriotic European parties seeking to restore civilizational self-confidence. 

The Middle East is downgraded from a previously dominant focus of the globalists to a partnership and investment region for business deals. With America again a net energy exporter and Iran weakened by recent attacks, the historic rationale for previous strategy positions in the region has receded. The strategy also supports expanding Trump’s Abraham Accords while avoiding forever wars. Given the region’s conflicts in recent years, it’ll be interesting to see if this new collaborative focus can be maintained. 

This document represents intentional triage, and the change is dramatic over previous administrative strategies. It elevates the Western Hemisphere and Indo-Pacific region, while at the same time it seems to reduce emphasis on Europe and the Middle East. It insists American policy must serve American interests first, that allies must contribute proportionally to defense spending, and that the era of America underwriting global order at the expense of its industrial base has ended. The strategy leverages Hamilton’s early economics, the Monroe Doctrine’s hemispheric focus, and Reagan’s peace through strength to reassert and restore traditional American principles previously abandoned in pursuit of globalist ambitions that weakened rather than strengthened American sovereignty.

It’s pure Trump. Can it be implemented? 

Here’s an excellent view of the strategy from financial analyst Brent Johnson: U.S. National Security Strategy & The United States of the Americas. Oh, and for kicks, check out the National Security Strategy 2025: Security for the British People in a Dangerous World. What you’ll see is that the United States and the United Kingdom are now moving in totally opposite directions. Given the colorful history of the two countries, this current trend couldn’t be more fascinating.

The Cycles of Empire

Empires Always Fall | Martin Armstrong | WWIII Interview Series

Why Linear Thinking Leads to Collapse

Martin Armstrong has spent decades tracking patterns that most analysts miss. His approach reveals an obvious problem in that the world operates on quantum mechanics principles whereas decision makers rely on linear models. “The average person just looks at classical physics,” Armstrong says. “The difference is in classical physics they reduce everything to a single cause and effect: this happened because of this. Whereas in quantum mechanics, it’s a complexity, not a single cause and effect. Everything’s interconnected.”

Armstrong stumbled on his now-famous 8.6-year cycle while researching financial panics dating back to 1683. What began as economic modeling evolved into something more profound: a system that predicts not just market crashes but wars, revolutions, and the collapse of civilizations. When he broke down the cycle, it revealed itself as 3,145 days. “It was like oh, that’s pi,” Armstrong says. The pattern proved fractal, appearing throughout nature and history.

“The vast majority of analysis out there is linear, which comes from the classic physics side. And it’s always wrong,” Armstrong says. He uses climate change predictions as an example: “Went up one degree this year, so it’s going to do that forever, and we’re all going to die in 50 years. There’s a cycle to everything. Nothing goes up forever.”

Europe’s Economic Death Spiral

The pattern emerges with brutal clarity when you look at Europe’s current predicament. Germany, which represents 25% of the EU’s GDP, has suffered devastating economic contraction through a triple blow: COVID lockdowns, aggressive climate policies, and sanctions against Russia. Armstrong estimates that the German economy has actually shrunk by a minimum of 3%, possibly up to 5%. “By that I mean not a recession. I’m talking about the number of possible jobs has declined.”

“The EU is doomed. It cannot recover,” Armstrong says. “They’re still running around with the climate change nonsense. And this is why they need war with Russia, because no matter what government you look at, when they’re in trouble, they need an external enemy.”

Armstrong says that Biden’s response to rising gasoline prices as a perfect example. After imposing sanctions on Russia that drove up fuel costs, Biden blamed “Putin’s inflation, not his.” Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau ran against Trump rather than focusing on domestic issues. “You need an external enemy when you have nothing else to offer.”

The fundamental problem traces back to the EU’s flawed structure. “Whenever you create a centralized government, they will always exercise everything in their own possible power,” Armstrong says. He points to Russia’s history as a cautionary tale. Lenin originally proposed that each Soviet republic retain its sovereignty, even writing a letter warning against letting Stalin succeed him. “It’s widely assumed in Russia that Stalin may have even poisoned Lenin.” Once Stalin seized power, he grabbed everything for Moscow. “Once it grabs that power, it’s not going to give it back.”

Europe is following the same trajectory. The AfD in Germany faced calls for banning, then blanket accusations of Nazism. Now it stands as the number one party in the country. Populations across Europe are rejecting centralized control, but Brussels refuses to give up power.

The Mercantile Model’s Fatal Flaw

Germany’s economic approach reveals another critical failure. “Germany has followed the mercantile model,” Armstrong says. “We build stuff, we sell it to you, we get rich.” The problem is that wealth never reaches the people. Germans face the highest tax rates in Europe. “If you can Google it, you’ll see the net worth of an average German is less than that of an Italian.”

Armstrong contrasts this with the American model that China now attempts to emulate. “China has looked at both models. It’s trying to copy the United States. It’s trying to create a consumer-based economy.” The numbers tell a stark story. “The capitalization of the New York Stock Exchange, just one exchange, is worth more than all of Europe combined.” When Home Depot launched its IPO, it was worth more than all the IPOs of Europe combined. Those valuations are difficult to image especially if you are consume CNN all day every day.

Europe’s hostility to capitalism hamstrings its own economy. Armstrong says that during World War I, European governments shut down all stock markets, and this impulse toward central control continues today. “This is the push for the digital currency in Europe. They go to a digital currency and that’s it. You can’t get it out.” Spain recently announced that citizens cannot withdraw more than $3,000 in cash without government permission, Armstrong says.

“This is freedom? Oh, Putin’s a dictator. It’s beginning to look the other way around. Everything that they accuse Putin of, they are doing. Denying free speech. It’s becoming much more like a socialistic communist state and it’s not sustainable.”

The Debt Trap and NATO’s Survival Instinct

The numbers paint a grim picture. Britain spends over 3.5% of GDP on interest payments alone. Now NATO demands an additional 5% for military spending. “What are we talking about here? We’re talking about at least 10% of GDP is now going for something that totally has nothing to do with improving the economy.”

NATO itself operates as a self-perpetuating bureaucracy searching for justification. “NATO’s sole purpose is war,” Armstrong states flatly. “I’ve seen the internal memo stuff. When all the money was going to climate change, they were afraid that they’re losing money. That’s their salaries for doing nothing. That’s their pensions for doing nothing. So what do they do? They have to keep saying, ‘Oh, Putin wants to invade Europe.’” But what does Europe have that Russia wants? No one asks that question when everyone knows from history that countries invade each other to acquire natural resources. What’s Europe’s natural resource valuation?

Armstrong finds this narrative absurd. “Putin’s been there since 1999. Why hasn’t he? Because there’s nothing there. Europe has tried to invade Russia three times.”

The Linear Thinking That Drives War

The neoconservative approach particularly troubles Armstrong because it exemplifies dangerous and limited linear thinking. Their strategy reduces complex geopolitical situations to simple formulas: remove this leader, impose these sanctions, achieve that goal. “Does anybody ask, okay, if you’re successful, what comes next? They never ask that question.”

Armstrong met neocon and warmonger Bill Kristol in the 1990s. “He told me if we take out Saddam Hussein, Assad out of Syria and Gaddafi, will bring peace to the Middle East. I said you’re out of your mind.” The problem stems from how borders were drawn after World War I. “We drew the borders carving up the Ottoman Empire. We didn’t do it ethnically or religiously.”

Iraq cost $3 trillion directly, but when factoring in ongoing interest payments, the true cost will exceed $10 trillion by the 2030s. “There’s no intention of ever paying off any debt,” Armstrong says. Afghanistan consumed 20 years. Vietnam had no stated goal. “There is never an objective.”

Armstrong traces the debt burden even further back. “We’re still paying interest on World War I. They never pay anything off.” The national debts of Europe and the United States don’t fund domestic programs or help citizens. “It goes to interest to keep the debt rolling and to war projects constantly.” The wars are always for them. Never for us.

How Markets Predict War

Armstrong’s computer model tracks capital flows, revealing that someone always knows before conflict erupts and this is never revealed on the evening news. “When I put all this together, I basically correlated it. And what comes out of it is very interesting. War does not take place when everybody’s fat and happy. Turn the economy down and that’s when you get war.”

Before the Hamas attack in October, defense stocks began rising a week earlier. Before Lebanon’s civil war in the 1970s, his computer model detected the instability eight days out by tracking massive currency movements. “By 1998, I had understood that somebody always knows.”

The London Financial Times published Armstrong’s 1998 forecast that Russia would collapse within 30 days. Then Russia collapsed right on schedule, triggering a long-term capital management crisis. “That’s when the CIA came in and said, ‘All right, fine. We’ve been monitoring you guys for quite some time.’ And they wanted me to go down and build the model for them.” Armstrong refused to sell his system or reveal the source code, beginning what he calls his “nightmare with government” where he spent years in prison.

“When you look at the markets they are objective. They’re not emotional and they show you what’s happening,” Armstrong says. “And I can tell you our computer warns that Europe will lose. It’s too much in a weak state economically.”

The Resource War Hidden in Plain Sight

Behind the propaganda about democracy and never ending rhetoric about external threats, Armstrong identifies the real motivation for targeting Russia. “Russia is the richest country in the world from natural resources. Even Maggie Thatcher said they’ve got everything from platinum, gold, oil, timber.” Estimates place Russia’s natural resources at $75 trillion, which is double the entire US national debt! Some analysts point out, however, that the US also has massive natural resources, but they are not monetized at present. But Europe? That remains unclear given current EU policy.

“There are some of these people, just like the crazy ones in Israel, thinking that this can be the Armageddon and we get the second coming,” Armstrong says. “In Europe you have the same kind of delusional ideas and it’s like if we can conquer Russia then we’ll have the 75 trillion, the US will be back to this vassal state, and we will rise again like the Roman Empire.” Perhaps that’s why they hate Trump so much? Time will tell.

China built a railway directly into Iran and now receives 80% of Iran’s oil. Sanctions that were supposed to collapse the Iranian economy instead drove it into deeper partnership with China and Russia. “They think they put on these sanctions, it will hurt the people, which is their objective. The people then rise up and overthrow their government. Hasn’t worked once.” How many sanction packages have the Europeans implemented since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war? I think it’s up to 18 at this point. The result? A much stronger Russia and a much weaker EU.

The Proxy War Strategy

Armstrong pulls no punches about NATO’s approach to Ukraine. Boris Johnson made the front pages of Norwegian newspapers by stating bluntly “that Britain is at war with Russia. This is a proxy war with Russia.” Multiple neocons in the US have said similar statements.

The Ukrainian conflict itself emerged from Western intervention. “We created the whole Ukrainian war. Victoria Nuland was over there handing out sandwiches in Maidan. You had John McCain on the stage over there. ‘We’re behind you. Overthrow your government. America’s behind you.’” Armstrong asks people to imagine the reverse scenario: “Can you imagine if Lavrov from Russia stood on the steps of the capital building in US, ‘Overthrow your government. We’re with you.’?”

When Ukraine nearly reached a peace agreement, Boris Johnson personally intervened. “There was a peace deal in Ukraine. He hops on a plane, goes over there, and this made the front page of the press in Ukraine. ‘No, you’re not allowed to sign a peace deal. We want war.’ The death toll was basically 130,000 at that point. It’s now over a million.” Yet the propaganda continues daily.

Armstrong’s assessment is brutal: “Do they care if any Ukrainian is still standing at the end of the day? No, they don’t.”

US Senator Lindsey Graham inadvertently revealed the strategy on tape: “This is the best money we ever spent to kill Russians.”

The False Flag Playbook

Armstrong says that governments routinely lie to justify wars, often creating incidents designed to manipulate public opinion. “Usually what they do is they create a false flag. That’s very, very common.”

The Lusitania provides a textbook case. The United States claimed neutrality while insisting the passenger liner carried no military cargo. “Germany said they are using passengers as a shield to get arms to Europe. US said no way are we doing that.” When divers discovered the wreck in 1987, “suddenly the government says well be careful, the hull was full of ammunition.”

Project Northwoods revealed how far governments will go. Declassified documents showed the US Joint Chiefs of Staff “actually proposing to kill Americans, blame it on Cuba” to justify invasion. “Kennedy said no and didn’t want to go into Vietnam. So they took him out.”

Hitler used the Reichstag fire to consolidate power. The Gulf of Tonkin incident that launched full American involvement in Vietnam never happened as reported and that was documented in detail in congressional testimony . “We were never attacked. Even Johnson had said for all he knew they were shooting at whales that night.”

Iraq demonstrated the pattern’s continuation into modern times. “Weapons of mass destruction never took place.” The entire justification for invasion rested on claims later proven false. “There isn’t a single war that has taken place that they haven’t lied about.” Remember, wars are for them, not us. We just have to fight them, that’s all.

Armstrong quotes Churchill’s famous observation: “The truth is so precious in war, it needs a bodyguard of lies to protect it.” Recently, the Iranian press reported contacting the United States with a warning about Israeli intentions. “They assumed that they had information that Israel would create a false flag attack to do with America to blame Iran to get us fully engaged there and they said it’s not us and we’re telling you in advance of what they’re trying to do.”

“This is standard,” Armstrong says. “I don’t care what side you’re talking about, left, right, whatever, they all do it.”

The Coming Fracture

Armstrong’s model predicts political fragmentation for both Europe and America. “The computer shows the US will break up just as Europe will because it’s not sustainable.” He notes the vast differences between American regions. “I live in Florida and it’s like Florida is a completely different country from California.”

The root cause traces to debt accumulated through warfare. “The vast majority of it is nothing but the accumulation of war debts, period. It does not benefit us. Then they have to keep raising taxes. ‘Oh, let’s tax the rich.’ For what? We’re doing this because you went to war. No country has ever benefited from a prolonged war.” Yet modern governments ignore this ancient and practical truth and instead pursue never ending conflicts that drain treasuries and populations.

Maybe the most instructive example comes from King Croesus of Lydia, among the wealthiest monarchs of the ancient world. “He went to the oracle at Delphi to ask advice about waging war against Cyrus the Great from Persia.” The oracle famously predicted that “a great empire will be destroyed.” Croesus naturally assumed this meant his enemy would fall. “The empire that was destroyed was his.”

The oracle’s ambiguous prophecy captures something essential about warfare’s uncertainty. Linear thinking assumed a straightforward interpretation and outcome. Complex reality delivered the opposite result. And analysts cited endlessly in the media miss it every time.

Armstrong’s final assessment carries the weight of decades spent watching governments repeat identical mistakes. “You’re going to be manipulated. You’re going to be listening to the press and they just get paid to put out the standard BS.” Understanding the cycles doesn’t stop them but allows individuals to prepare and respond accordingly. The 8.6-year cycle continues whether acknowledged or not. Wars emerge from economic decline whether populations understand the mechanism or not. False flags will be created because they always are. They work every time and these cycles will continue.

Empires will fall. The question is whether people will recognize the patterns before or after suffering through them again.

Somewhere in India in 2023.
Somewhere in India in 2023.